9/10 in review

SPY is up by 0.54%

Secondary: still in an up cycle

Primary: SW: +175, Slope: +13, Change: -8, Value: 2729

SPY MP: continues lower without a reversal since 8/28

SPY Liquidity: lower, flat since mid-day

SPY Algos: they've sold modestly into the past three days, pretty flat.

SPY DP's: had two big buy spikes at 12:16 and 15:16. Dark Pools have really sold the last pop, and started buying into the lows yesterday. This buying has continued today with big volumes. This is the biggest spike in their activity for the past 8 days. I will feature some charts:

Dark Pools intra-day:

Liquidity (all) and Algos in comparison:

The charts above show how large DP's volume was when compared to the overall liquidity.

15-minute DP chart:

VXX MP: higher all day

Key components for the trading day:

• Weak opening SW, weak origination of a new up cycle.
• SPY MP lower all day.
• Afternoon extension in price without any support from the Change or SW.

SW has ranged from -400 to +850, which has put the slope in the average of +20-30 and turned the Primary up from a moderate value of -234. The origination of a new cycle has been very weak; under slightly changed circumstances the Primary could have been turning down at the close.

While the afternoon reversal certainly wasn't pretty, it has simply retraced the up extension, as price has closed near the prior consolidation levels. Today could have been much worse, given the yesterday's downside potential.

There has been a slow down in Algo selling activity, which lasts already for 3 days - the previous time since the panic it lasted for 2. There has also been a spike in their quote rate activity, which has been quiet for a multiple-day period, (marked by the orange square):

The next leg on the algo liquidity will be critical, because current behavior doesn't support the up cycle on the Secondary at all.

Meanwhile, the trading ranges are getting squeezed on intra-day and daily time-frames. We are getting squeezed both in short term range, as well as in intermediate, as that trend-line gets closer and closer to price. However, there is no trouble unless we break the low from 9/4 - 191.6

1-hour:

Daily:

On the 15-day time frame, which captures the whole breakdown, we have the following picture:

We have filled that volume null which was caused by 4 different gaps, but at the moment price is right in between two intermediate nulls, which are important - price hasn't consolidated there or traded in them for a good amount of time - it only swiftly moved through.

Underneath there is a bigger volume support, caused by three solid trading days in that range, and so far I believe that it will remain unbreakable.

With the current value of the Primary, it is likely that it will turn back down in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow. 

BOTTOM LINE

Given the positioning of the primary and an afternoon reversal today, I would expect it to turn down at the open, and for the price to test the lows (end of the volume null). I do not think that the lows would get successfully broken - I would expect some range trading in the lower zone with some faders higher, possibly a fader of the morning weakness and a slightly down/up day. If the lows get broken, we could close the gap, but again, I don't believe in a follow-through any lower - at least right now.

P.S.

One thing that I want to point out is the Dark Pool behavior - collapsing VXX MP yesterday and pretty serious buying today into the afternoon and into the close. 

9/10 trade

Bear Vertical Call 198/200 (20/20) for 0.43

Bull Vertical Put 193/194 (30/30) for 0.12

Reason: 1 day to expire, weak new up cycle on the Primary, lots of resistance above and weak extension intra-day.

At origination:

Probability of profit : 68.53%
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.17%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.5%

Percent to the downside: -1.46%
Percent to the upside: +1.1%


Maximum profit: +2.68%
Maximum loss: -5.32%

NOTES:

Negative delta two vertical spreads (full Iron Condor) with some bias to the downside. Bias to the downside is given due to the fact that we might be closing a little bit lower today and the Primary. The break-even points are defined by the recent ranges, and given the recent range-behavior of The Primary and the price, they leave plenty of room for Friday trading.

This ultimately supports the bias that Friday trading will continue to be range-bound.

Current 5-day average daily change sits at 1.46%, and our break-even points allow bigger movement by 3/4.

I will be looking to put a bull put spread on Friday into weakness with a break-even point in the recent support. 

_________________________________________________________________________________

End of the Day update:

Probability of profit : 67.36%
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.52%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.23%

Percent to the downside: -1.12%
Percent to the upside: +1.44%


Price has moved lower, and given the Primary, upside risk is minimized now, as it is exactly the average 10-day range. Downside risk is modestly higher, than what I would like to see, but given its position at the gap closure, it still remains reasonable.

The bull put spread should have been put later into the fade.

September 9.

SPY is up by 0.93% at the open

9:30 Opening SW +1816, Slope +10.

9:44 QQQ has gapped above its resistance, which should be important. I'm watching it to bounce off them.

9:45 UPDATE SPY MP flat, Liquidity shows selling, VXX MP up. SW +1545 and Change +1. It should be noted, that /ES has tested the previous resistance levels pre-market.

9:47 The fact that we have passed the previous resistance level is pretty important, a much worse case scenario would be a flat open or a very small gap up. 

9:51 I wouldn't mind a gap closure or a partial closure with a bounce off the previous resistance levels. It is better than tight range trading decline.

9:56 Eyeing the liquidity right now and how well the SW would hold. SW +1198, so...not so well.

9:58 There is a fine line which limits any potential for an upside reversal on the /ES - 1984. Unless that level gets broken, there is nothing to do on the long side. On the opposite, if by any chance the current highs would get taken out, I would have stop limit orders all over the place above them.

UPDATE 10:00 SW +1170, Change -19. Liquidity/SPY MP down, VXX MP up. No clues in the indicators so far, except for the weakening SW. I wouldn't be surprised to see new lows at this moment.

10:05 New lows, I think they've run a program.

10:07 Yep, three small sell programs. SW +998, Change -28.

10:16 The decline continues, little bounce on the Liquidity and SPY MP. SW +698, Change -43.

10:17 There is a clear descending resistance line on the chart. What usually happens, is that it gets broken with a fake-out reversal, that forms a second descending resistance. The break of the second one is usually powerful.

10:19 SPY has retraced ~ 70% of the gap. One could start fading it aggressively at this point.

10:20 QQQ has retraced to the resistance levels right now.

10:21 Aggressive /ES trade with 2 points at risk.

10:23 VXX MP spikes lower, tests down.


UPDATE 10:30 SW +808, Change -38. SPY MP lower, Liquidity flattening. My stop on the /ES is just below the 1 hour range...seems reasonable IMO.


10:35 With the negative change, the profit target should have been smaller. Stop loss triggered.


10:36 Small sell program took out the 198 stops. Seems to me as an extension in this move down. DP's spiking up a bit, Algos continue flattening, so as the MP. Small decrease in VXX MP.


10:38 Price tests yesterday high, long /ES once again.


10:38 Further leg down in Algos followed the price.


10:39 Given the Primary and current ranges, I would be fading moves out of 60-m range back into it.


10:51 Three consecutive down 30-m bars. I am almost 100% confident in a reversal.


11:07 The gap has been covered, SW +98 and Change -60. Consolidation.


11:08 The lows have been very consistent today, which is reflected by the way they match the bottom channel line. The first upper channel has been already broken, so I extended it to the last high. This type of behavior sets up a reversal after some consolidation/last extension.

11:11 Option portfolio sold some volatility calls with next week's expiration. Might be just an intra-day, partially or fully.


11:12 Price breaks out into the 60 minute range. 198.27 SPY is the line to watch.

11:14 Liquidity shows decent buying and SPY MP is turning up. VXX MP had a large extension down into the lows, but it's thin today...so that's why.


11:16 It would be nice to see liquidity UP today...would support this up cycle.


11:17 Further up-tick in SPY MP.


11:19 A visible squeeze in the price. SW +321, Change -49. Algos are selling into the pop.


11:25 Multiple sell programs push price back into the lows. SW +135, Change -58. However, liquidity shows BUYING INTO THIS PUSH!


11:29 SPY ranges via channels

11:39 Price broke the green channel, resistance at the purple channel right now. SW +279, Change -44, SPY MP testing down, Liquidity in slight decline, DPs sellers.


11:40 So far, we are seeing lower highs which "smash" the price into support. Steve Hammer suggests that a support break would bring in lower ranges - could be true, but then, I've seen so many times a fake-out which runs the stops, only to quickly reverse before the actual move up. Price breaks support.


11:41 The thing about these two days is the ridiculous buying into the close yesterday. If they were willing to do so yesterday and saw higher prices today, they will buy in more into the same "yesterday's" prices.


11:42 SPY MP spike lower, Algos continue selling. I would really like to see some consolidation on the accumulators, or buying into the lows, or an extension without a corresponding price movement.


11:49 Yep, that was a program that ran the stops. SW +103, Change -53. 


11:53 Algos testing down, SPY MP down, DP's selling more. SW -48, Change -60.


11:59 One of my indicators suggest that we just saw the LODs...this is just for the reference.


UPDATE 12:00 SW +110, Change -45. MP down to flat, Liquidity down and flattening. 30-m looks interesting:

12:07 A fade into the previous close followed by a strong bounce. Algos are very flat for the past 15 minutes. SW +86, Change -47. But I'm getting more and more confident.


12:08 An extension bar which caused an up-tick in liquidity, DPs reversed to buying during the past 15 minutes. MP continues down.


12:16 More extension bars, price is at descending resistance on the /ES. This looks like an another afternoon reversal, I don't think we will see lower lows today. The SW and Change are concerning, but in the current environment, SW could get above +1000 with ease.


12:21 Price TESTS resistance. SW +360, Change -33. MP continues down, Liquidity is supportive. Spike down on VXX MP.


12:23 This is the second time price tries to get back into 60m range and it got stopped out in the same price level. Should break.


12:30 Three solid up bars and it breaks the resistance. SW +347, Change -29. MP continues down, Algos flate.


12:43 Slight retracement and going up again. Liquidity higher, VXX MP spike lower, SPY MP slower lower. SW +297, Change -32.


12:45 There are two ways out of this situation: 1) They squeeze price a bit more, then run the program. 2) They let price retrace a bit lower to bounce, and then the upside move would continue.

12:49 While price is falling right now in a stronger squeeze, there is continued buying on Algo and spike down on VXX MP. I'd give it 20-25 minutes given the time right now.


12:54 They drop it lower, but LIQUIDITY INCREASES INTO THE DROP.


UPDATE 1:06 SPY MP has reversed a bit, continued buying on the liquidity, SW +177 and Change -33. There is at least 1.5 hours before the slope could turn, but if that happens, any long positions should get released...meanwhile, SPY moved lower with consolidation and is now grinding higher, as expected.

1:09 Another spike lower on VXX MP.


1:10 I think this 30-minute bar will define on where we are going next.


1:14 Still seeing this consistent  upside consolidation with higher lows...it typically explodes after a while:

1:15 VXX MP continues lower, SPY MP slightly higher, liquidity up to flat. SW +97, Change -37. An extension bar up on SPY which has matched the descending resistance line. Price is in a doji, should be going in 2-3 mins.


1:21 Up move continues, here's the VXX MP

1:24 Quick retracement lower, but liquidity doesn't respond.


1:26 They've ran a program, lower low. SW -24, Change -43. Liquidity doesn't react however, and take a look at VXX MP once again:

1:29 Price tests LODs...new lows... VXX MP still continues down...I still see this as an extension on price...


1:41 Price is lower. VXX MP IS AMAZING. ALGOS ARE BUYING IT, DARK POOLS ARE SELLING IT...IF SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING, THAT WOULD BE THE DARK POOLS (C) STEVE HAMMER. TOTAL DUMP OF MP INTO NEW LOWS ON SPY, HOW DO YOU LIKE THIS DIVERGENCE?

1:45 And VIX futures are not higher into this noticeable S&P decline; previous time of the low is market with the vertical red line.

2:30 Slope change down confirmed, SW - 960 and the Change -60. DPs are buying into the highs, Liquidity lower/SPY MP lower, VXX MP begins to slowly rise from the lows.

9/8 in review

9/8 - SPY up by 2.51%

Secondary:  has defined a new up cycle; continued positive divergence in the slope

Primary: SW: +1775, Slope: +477, Change: +15, Value: +1888

SPY MP: down on the day.

SPY Liquidity (All): down on the day

SPY Algos Liquidity: down

SPY Dark Pools Liquidity: down

VXX MP: flat

Key components for the trading day:

• Constant highly positive SW
• Afternoon reversal marked by MP/Liquidity/VXX MP
• High upside burst given the reversal, very strong activity into the close (they bought the close)

Due to an extensive analysis during the day, I will keep this post short. The Secondary has identified a new up cycle with massive positive divergence on a very strong day - today was possibly the strongest day since the panic, based on volatility and constant buying after afternoon reversal after a partial up gap fill. However, liquidity still doesn't support the price action. 

We are at an intersection point right now, where the momentum could push us higher, or it could weaken into the resistance level. The value of the Primary is also relatively high for a solid up move.

So far, 199.6 is our target based on the positioning of the Primary, Liquidity and VXX MP. 

Tomorrow should give us some clues about the identified up cycle on The Secondary, since this is the second time it happens during the past 3 trading days.

September 8 [ID]

S&P is up by +1.8%.

First 30 minutes are taken from Steve Hammer's journal:

Opening Read Sept 8:  SW has opened extremely positive at +1882, the Slope -355 and the Change +174.  TTXSlope shows 2.04 bars so at least an hour before the Primary can turn back up at this level of SW.  Algos in control until 9:45...too early to tell what the Accumulators are doing yet.  The 5m has turned up.

9:45  30,000 SPY trades.  SW +2100, the Slope -344 and the Change +184.  TTXSlope shows 1.87 bars which is still an hour away at least.  SPY MP flattening, SPY Liquidity (all) also flat... Algos rising a little, Dark Pools small sellers as you would expect into a gap up of this size.

If we want to trade the ranges today we first must wait for SPY to make a range.  With the Change and SW this strongly positive, we want to buy into the lows of the next bar focusing on the midpoint of the current bar when it completes (10am).

9:54  SW +1950.  No large program bursts yet today.  Only small 50-75 share programs and not many of them.  SPY trade rates on the low end of active.

Liquidity (all) continues to show profit taking into the rise.

UPDATE 10:00  SW continues to hold the extremely positive levels, +1800, the Slope -211 and the Change +147.  TTXSlope shows 1.4 bars which is still about an hour away from the early slope change up signal.

VXX MP is rising.  SPY MP down but starting to flatten.  Liquidity (all) moving lower as well.

195 is the top of the gap.

_________________________________________________________________________________

10:09 I am back at my screens, meanwhile, the bottom line which I outlined during the weekend says the following:

"I would expect the Primary turn on Tuesday on a gap-up, price should continue higher trading in the volume null, that ends at 197 SPY."

We did get a gap up and ranges are compressing now on the daily, just as expected.

The key points for today are intact. I've opened a long position yesterday just above the 1929 line and I have no reason to sell it right now.


10:18 Some flattening on Algos, SW +1764 and Change +145. The Secondary, once again, is very important today: there is a continued positive divergence - the Change is at its highest since the decline - which puts as above the 211.2 highs; and it will also identify a new up cycle, if the SW at the close is higher than +1370. 

I've called the consistency and stability of the SW to be the key, because on Friday it has barely moved by 300. I hope that's the case today.

10:26 We've opened in the volume null, and there is a possibility for SPY to drop a whole $1 to fill it. Seeing some consolidation in the lows with liquidity flat to slightly declining. SW +1775, Change +146.


UPDATE 10:30 SW +1869, Change +130. Price is back near the opening levels as a 350 share buy program with very high quote rates has hit a minute ago. The majority of trading during the burst was buying, and Algos are really flattening right now.So as the VXX MP.

10:33 The 60-minute ranges are in place, let's go! Seeing some squeezing near the open.

10:36 Steve has mentioned that a break of 196.02 on SPY would move price into the higher range - it's the high of the second 30-minute bar. I thought it was worth mentioning as well, because I didn't think about it in the first place. Meanwhile, it is also the breakdown level.

10:38 As I mentioned in the weekend post, the previous three cycles had consecutively decreasing duration...if we treat it as a price squeeze, then this up cycle should really reveal the potential and support that positive divergence on the Secondary... in 20 minutes an early signal will be issued, confirming at 11:30. The SW continues to be strong at +1864, Change +129 - the momentum during the origination of the up cycle will remain very strong. Meanwhile, the value of the Primary would be in mid -1k, as expected, which still leaves us plenty of potential.

10:42 Sell program and new lows, 60-minute range is broken to the downside. Price bounces off support. 

10:46 Seeing some flattening on SPY MP. Liquidity was flattening, but moved down on an extension due to the sell programs. Gaps of this magnitude don't usually sell-off all day and typically have a late morning reversal - it's all about the price where buyers are willing to step up, while profit takers either booked their profits, or are unwilling to do so, since they expect a better deal in the near-term future.

10:50 The worst scenario would be bottoming and range-trading in that zone - we would waste all this upside energy on nothing. But this cycle should run for at least another day - with the current numbers, at least.

10:51 Price is back into 60-m range, algos are flat to slightly higher, SW consistent at +1815, Change +127. But we continue seeing consecutive lower highs and lower lows so far...

10:54 IMO, one is better off establishing some longs for this up cycle into the lows or trading ranges today. From what we've seen so far, I can hardly believe that we would take out the highs - maybe a close above the open. A failed test of 60m range.

10:58 There is some flattening, and price has moved higher into the 60m range. However, I've noticed a slight down-tick in liquidity as price rebounded. Just a little detail.

UPDATE 11:00 A 200-share buy program and we are back into the 1st hour range. SW +1823, Change +109 and Slope +28, which means that the early up cycle has been identified. Seeing the "strongest flattening" on SPY MP and Algo liquidity for this day so far. 196.02 is the key level, especially with its positioning - right above the open; so far we've had tests of both upside and the downside, identified by long tails.

 11:05 VIX futures are unimpressed with the dips we are seeing - they are "matching" lower lows on the S&P with equal prices.


11:07 With the exception of the upside/downside tests, price has been in a relatively tight range since the breakdown at 10:00 AM.

11:09 Flattening on accumulators could potentially give a great entry, but at the same time, there is risk of a sudden breakdown, typically caused by the program activity. However, we are consolidating after a partial fader of a huge gap with SW +1825 and Change +109...did I say "risk"?

11:11 A rather noticeable squeeze right now, I think this is it.

11:18 Yep, testing previous high.

11:24 A breakout above the previous high. Let's see 196.02. SW +1885, Change +112.

11:30 Algos/SPY MP flat for the past hour. SW higher at +1914, Change +97. NEW UP CYCLE CONFIRMED, and it's very strong at its origination.

11:39 Spike down on the VXX MP, as price continues to trade below the previous high. SW +1910, Change +97.

11:43 VXX MP lower, SPY MP flat, Algos continue selling.

11:45 30-minute chart of SPY is a thing of beauty - open/close levels have been in a 10 cents range for the past 1.5 hours! Can't stay like that for the rest of the day.

11:48 16-point range on /ES. Volatility is contracting, I guess.

11:50 /ES is squeezed. Looks as it is going to test downside.

11:53 Previous 30-minute bar on SPY has made a higher low, but not a higher high. SPY test 60-minute range, which is 13 cents away from the possible breakdown level.

11:56 Price tests the breakdown level of previous bar's low, 195.3. Algos continue selling, and it's all that matters at the moment. Maybe a reversal at 12:00-12:15?

11:58 Another leg down on Algos, looks like a small program has been run.

UPDATE 12:00 SW +1889, Change +81. Algos remain sellers, VXX MP flattening after the leg down at 11:39. Price has tested support and consolidates in the zone. A higher high is the key in this scenario - if we get another lower high, that could put upside potential at risk. And right now we are consolidating near the lows with lower highs - not a  very strong pattern.


12:04 One point of concern - mixed signals and divergences. We've got the Secondary, with its very positive divergence on Change and a potential identification of a new up cycle today, yet the Liquidity, dominated by Algos, is going down the drain. With this divergence, however, there is also a considerable extension down right now. So again, we've got multiple mixed signals even just from one tool...seems like uncertainty is dominating recent trading...

12:09 Seeing some burst to the upside expressed by consecutive up candles on 1-min, as everything flattens. In picking reversals to the upside this is exactly what I love to see - a sequence of consecutive up candles from the lows, not extended, but consistent and over some period of time - that sets up for a future burst in the form of an extension.

12:12 We've got 6 consecutive green 1-min candles from 12:05 to 12:10. Price has stopped at the high of the previous 30-minute bar - somewhat a decision point. SW+1962, Change +85.


12:14 Talking of the key points for today and mixed signals in the market - notice how SW has reached higher levels, as price moved into the gap?


12:15 CLASSIC REVERSAL STAGED RIGHT AT 12:00! PRICE EXCEEDS 196.02. As I was focusing on other things, I completely missed an uptick in Algo liquidity, which started around 12:08-12:10.


12:18 SW REACHES +2001, CHANGE +87. This was such an easy setup, one only needed to wait for a downside test and a supportive signal from the Algo Liquidity...Today's post is definitely worth of reading - lots of good predictions based on solid analysis.


12:21 That was a very strong pop, and Algos were consistent in buying through the whole move - they are only flattening now, not selling. Price breaks out higher, 196.12.


12:23 The beauty of today's setup is that we are ~0.25% away from the highs of the day, tested downside with the reversal of algo behavior, and we still have +86 on the Change and extremely high SW.

12:26 Price tests the last resistance level before the HOD - 196.2; I see continued buying on Algo into the pop, therefore I assume that we would take out 196.2 and then could see some ranges in that zone underneath the HOD.


12:29 That was fast - 196.29. Algos flat for past 3-5 minutes.

UPDATE 12:30 Price broke out to the upper ranges limited by the HOD/196.02. SW is extremely positive at +1988, Change is strong at +73. I am seeing continued buying on Algo liquidity into the highs.

12:32 Previous 30-minute bar was extended - but then again, look at the range of what we've seen during the 2 hours before. Still, given the burst, I would expect some ranges and slow grinding - a general quality of large gap days.

12:38 Meanwhile, a steady decrease in VXX MP since 11:25 or so, continues. That signal, paired with an uptick in Algo liquidity, indicated a strong setup for buying into the lows today.

12:43 I've been paying some attention to options...here's something:

A sweep for ~100k at 11:40.

Another 85k at 11:00:

12:53 Some selling into the pop from Algos, VXX MP flattening. Consolidation near the open.

12:57 A small breakdown below the open, given the current conditions and 30-minute bar positioning, I would say that it is a good opportunity for fading.

UPDATE 1:00 SW +1825, Change +54. Price has tested the previous bar's mid-point, Algos sold some into the decline, but flattening over the course of the past 10 minutes. VXX MP has flattened and seeing a mild increase. To remain in an uptrend, price needs to rise above the current level of 195.82 - therefore, a good buying opportunity IMO.

1:04 Price slightly lower, seeing an uptick on Algos. I must say that we've retraced more than I would've imagined - 61.8% of the upside move and going lower. The Change is weakening, therefore, I suppose that my expectation of a close above open/below the HOD is still very much in play (unless they shoot some  big high quote rate programs after 2:00-2:30).

1:07 Trendline test. Algos aren't buying into the dip so far.


1:35 A decline of rather larger degree than I expected; SW +1729 and Change +40. VXX MP rising slowly, Algos decreasing to flat. 195.5 is now the critical level. Price approaches open level.

1:39 So far we have two higher lows and one lower high. 195.5 defines a breakdown, 196.3 defines an upbreak. With the Change +41 we can still see price higher, Algos and VXX MP are the key components.

1:43 What I've said before is pretty much intact, you are either establishing longs for a 2-3 day swing (which should've happened already), or trading ranges to the upside by buying declines, since these ranges are rather big...while price isn't really trending good enough to simply hold an intra-day long...


1:45 A small uptick in Algos which followed the price higher. At least they are not selling into the rise right now.


1:50 Slow grind higher, VXX MP flattening, Algos flat. 


1:51 It took two down bars to partially retrace that big up bar, and now we might get another big one. Given the late afternoon, it is unlikely that this trend would reverse. I would also imagine that EOD re-balancing would be on the buying side.

1:53 Looks like they are about to take out the descending resistance and make a new high. Liquidity is flat to slightly rising = ready to pop.


1:56 A test of previous high. If the test fails, the decline should be a lot less severe than the previous one, since price visited the upside target twice already...But I doubt there would be more than 10-15 cents fade at most.


UPDATE 2:00 Price tests the previous high; SW +1797 and Change +35. VXX MP slow decline, Algos slow rise. 


2:01 Breakout. There are 30 cents to HOD. It is possible to pull through IMO, afternoon trends usually last...and the "numbers" are good.


2:03 A BIG UPTICK ON ALGOS LIQUIDITY, TESTING UP.

2:08 The HOD was a result of early program activity, S&P is actually testing the "real" HOD right now. 


2:09 Algo spike quickly reversed, yet going higher again. Uncertainty?


2:11 BIG VOLUME SPIKE DOWN ON DARK POOLS.


2:14 VXX MP has slowly reversed and testing up, Algos slightly up.


2:16 A rather fast pullback (20 cents) and SPY at the highs again. BREAKOUT.


2:17 Knowing that after the test of the highs there won't be a serious pullback was quite intelligent.


2:18 SW +1846, Change +38.


2:20 As long as Algos are not consistently down and had some decent buying into the lows, I would pay less attention at this time to Accumulators. SW/Change trumps everything right now, all you really need to do is to define price levels at which buying makes sense from the Risk/Reward standpoint. 


2:23 If we get above the HOD, I think there will be an aggressive bid up given the trading session we've had so far. Meanwhile, SPY MP started rising around 1:00 pm and continues to do so...really defined the last up move.


2:26 NEW HIGHS; SPY MP RISING MORE, SW +1864 and Change +39.


2:28 The value of the Primary will be slightly below +2k at the close. If The Secondary identifies a new up cycle, that still leaves us plenty of room for the upside.

2:29 Accelerated buying on ALGOS. SPY tests the highs.


UPDATE 2:31 SW +1849, Change +30. VXX MP had a small spike down during the past 5-8 minutes, SPY MP slowly up, Algos buyers. Any pullback should be very moderate.


2:34 Spike up on DP's. Price is higher in slow trading, very well could be a successful test.


2:36 EXTENSION BAR 15 cents, further buying on Algos.


2:37 PRICE VERTICAL, as I said, A VERY AGGRESSIVE BID.


2:39 SW +1882, Change +32. 225 share buy program, extension bars show that buying dominated during its activity. Liquidity surges due to Algos:

2:42 SPX Daily - a move should be coming this week, unless a fake-out or a further squeeze.

2:43 SPY actually had similar descending resistance, and it got broken during this upside burst.


2:45 Another high, 197.12. A level of 197.2 represents resistance, very close.


2:47 It would be fun to see a burst above the previous highs into the close on heavy program activity. Wouldn't happen, but it seems like we could gap above those highs tomorrow, unless exogenous events.


2:49 DP's buy spike pushes liquidity higher. Price slowly retraces part of the up move.


2:52 Some consolidation on the /ES with a very tight bid, faded only by 2 points. I would still expect higher highs.


2:54 0.5 points to the high, /VX already shows new lows. SPY MP continues rising, Algos showing new set of buying coming in, might be testing up. The way we close today is critical IMO; if they start unloading into this...then I would not be too optimistic about the next three days, and would probably expect a fader into the gap closure of today.


2:57 /ES tops out once again at 1964 and bumps a little bit lower. Algos marked a new high in buying, but quickly reversed and most likely were the reason of the recent selling. 


UPDATE 3:00 SW +1819, Change +22. Liquidity all higher, SPY MP higher. The 60-minute high range represents current support level, but I doubt that it will be reached...unless, programs.


3:02 /ES pops after a 3 point retracement. Might be consolidating a bit.


3:05 /ES tests 0.25 points within the high.


3:08 Tick down on liquidity, some obvious profit taking is happening. 3:30 - 3:50 action should be interesting.


3:11 There is a 3-point range on /ES. A break below = at least 2 points down, a break above = ?


3:12 ALGOS SHOWING SELLING INTO THE HIGHS RIGHT NOW


3:13 Noticeable range tightening on SPY. Continued algo selling, VXX MP flat. SPY MP flattening.


3:16 Price is right near the breakdown level, they might just fire a program and be done with it...


3:19 Another test of the support and range compresses even more. I would say that it consolidates nicely, only if I didn't see this:

It didn't break down yet, as I am writing this, but most likely it will in the next 5 minutes.


3:21 BREAKDOWN. SPY MP completely flat. Tests support.


3:23 Liquidity continues down, it will mark the pre-breakout levels if it continues to do so for the next 3-5 minutes.


3:28 BUY SPIKE, price is back in the consolidation range. An uptick on Algos, which pretty much marked their pre-extension levels. Possibly a good sign. VXX MP down.


3:29 BIG BURST of buying, 4 bars in a row so far.


UPDATE 3:31 SW +1835, Change +18. Algo liquidity higher, VXX MP lower, SPY MP slightly higher, flattening. Good conditions.


3:32 Price is at the highs. /ES tested 1964. Looks like they're pushing it higher.


3:33 Consolidation near the top. An uptick in DPs activity, so as Algos. 


3:35 Continued strong buying on Algos as price retraces back a bit. 


3:36 BREAKOUT. Price tests the last small resistance level before the big chevron down.


3:37 I will close my /ES position from last week, simply because there is still a huge amount of uncertainty right now, expressed in Delineators, Accumulators and other metrics.



3:38 PRICE IS VERTICAL, 50 CENTS BELOW THE END OF THE VOLUME NULL. SW seems to be made out of titanium today, +1871.


3:41 Closed my /ES into an extension, 33.5 points over the weekend.


3:44 Liquidity is rising into the new high, not only due to Algos but also due to large DP's volumes as well; SPY MP up. Price absorbs the last burst, but without any large retracements.


3:46 Now, this looks better. Algos are unchanged during the past 10 minutes, this is all Dark Pools:

Is an EOD spike on liquidity going to happen, as it did during the recent closures, or not? That could put it up on the day...


3:48 /VX didn't make a corresponding lower low on the last S&P high (just a note). VXX MP lower in last 5-7 minutes. Liquidity ALL continues higher, only due to Dark Pools. Price is within 0.5 points of the high, in the very upper zone for the day, even without a decent retracement of the last move up.


3:50 Upside test. Let's see what EOD will present on this very interesting trading day.


3:52 As they are painting the close, I would like to say that this was the strongest day since the panic has started. Why? An afternoon reversal after a gap up, without too much extensions or volatility, followed by 5 consecutive low-volatility 30-minute bar up, which marked a very strong close. 

Just price as it is:

3:55 NEW HIGH, SW +1831 and Change +17. Liquidity a whole lot higher, supported by both Dark Pools and Algos, the latter ones had another extension up. I will post the pictures in the closing read.


3:57 Just for reference, right now price is within 50 cents of the previous high. 20 cents to the end of the volume null.


3:58 One thing for certain - they are BUYING the close.


3:59 And we are seeing the regular extensions on liquidity into the close, with one difference - it started rising at noon and fully supported the strong upside move into 4:00 pm.


CLOSING POST 4:00 SW closed at +1775, Change +15. Liquidity (All) and SPY MP supported the reversal and the whole move into the close. I will mark this post with [ID] - Important Day, since it was outstanding in my opinion.