S&P is up by +1.8%.
First 30 minutes are taken from Steve Hammer's journal:
Opening Read Sept 8: SW has opened extremely positive at +1882, the Slope -355 and the Change +174. TTXSlope shows 2.04 bars so at least an hour before the Primary can turn back up at this level of SW. Algos in control until 9:45...too early to tell what the Accumulators are doing yet. The 5m has turned up.
9:45 30,000 SPY trades. SW +2100, the Slope -344 and the Change +184. TTXSlope shows 1.87 bars which is still an hour away at least. SPY MP flattening, SPY Liquidity (all) also flat... Algos rising a little, Dark Pools small sellers as you would expect into a gap up of this size.
If we want to trade the ranges today we first must wait for SPY to make a range. With the Change and SW this strongly positive, we want to buy into the lows of the next bar focusing on the midpoint of the current bar when it completes (10am).
9:54 SW +1950. No large program bursts yet today. Only small 50-75 share programs and not many of them. SPY trade rates on the low end of active.
Liquidity (all) continues to show profit taking into the rise.
UPDATE 10:00 SW continues to hold the extremely positive levels, +1800, the Slope -211 and the Change +147. TTXSlope shows 1.4 bars which is still about an hour away from the early slope change up signal.
VXX MP is rising. SPY MP down but starting to flatten. Liquidity (all) moving lower as well.
195 is the top of the gap.
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10:09 I am back at my screens, meanwhile, the bottom line which I outlined during the weekend says the following:
"I would expect the Primary turn on Tuesday on a gap-up, price should continue higher trading in the volume null, that ends at 197 SPY."We did get a gap up and ranges are compressing now on the daily, just as expected.
The key points for today are intact. I've opened a long position yesterday just above the 1929 line and I have no reason to sell it right now.
10:18 Some flattening on Algos, SW +1764 and Change +145. The Secondary, once again, is very important today: there is a continued positive divergence - the Change is at its highest since the decline - which puts as above the 211.2 highs; and it will also identify a new up cycle, if the SW at the close is higher than +1370.
I've called the consistency and stability of the SW to be the key, because on Friday it has barely moved by 300. I hope that's the case today.
10:26 We've opened in the volume null, and there is a possibility for SPY to drop a whole $1 to fill it. Seeing some consolidation in the lows with liquidity flat to slightly declining. SW +1775, Change +146.
UPDATE 10:30 SW +1869, Change +130. Price is back near the opening levels as a 350 share buy program with very high quote rates has hit a minute ago. The majority of trading during the burst was buying, and Algos are really flattening right now.So as the VXX MP.
10:33 The 60-minute ranges are in place, let's go! Seeing some squeezing near the open.
10:36 Steve has mentioned that a break of 196.02 on SPY would move price into the higher range - it's the high of the second 30-minute bar. I thought it was worth mentioning as well, because I didn't think about it in the first place. Meanwhile, it is also the breakdown level.
10:38 As I mentioned in the weekend post, the previous three cycles had consecutively decreasing duration...if we treat it as a price squeeze, then this up cycle should really reveal the potential and support that positive divergence on the Secondary... in 20 minutes an early signal will be issued, confirming at 11:30. The SW continues to be strong at +1864, Change +129 - the momentum during the origination of the up cycle will remain very strong. Meanwhile, the value of the Primary would be in mid -1k, as expected, which still leaves us plenty of potential.
10:42 Sell program and new lows, 60-minute range is broken to the downside. Price bounces off support.
10:46 Seeing some flattening on SPY MP. Liquidity was flattening, but moved down on an extension due to the sell programs. Gaps of this magnitude don't usually sell-off all day and typically have a late morning reversal - it's all about the price where buyers are willing to step up, while profit takers either booked their profits, or are unwilling to do so, since they expect a better deal in the near-term future.
10:50 The worst scenario would be bottoming and range-trading in that zone - we would waste all this upside energy on nothing. But this cycle should run for at least another day - with the current numbers, at least.
10:51 Price is back into 60-m range, algos are flat to slightly higher, SW consistent at
10:54 IMO, one is better off establishing some longs for this up cycle into the lows or trading ranges today. From what we've seen so far, I can hardly believe that we would take out the highs - maybe a close above the open. A failed test of 60m range.
10:58 There is some flattening, and price has moved higher into the 60m range. However, I've noticed a slight down-tick in liquidity as price rebounded. Just a little detail.
UPDATE 11:00 A 200-share buy program and we are back into the 1st hour range. SW +1823, Change +109 and Slope +28, which means that the early up cycle has been identified. Seeing the "strongest flattening" on SPY MP and Algo liquidity for this day so far. 196.02 is the key level, especially with its positioning - right above the open; so far we've had tests of both upside and the downside, identified by long tails.
11:05 VIX futures are unimpressed with the dips we are seeing - they are "matching" lower lows on the S&P with equal prices.
11:07 With the exception of the upside/downside tests, price has been in a relatively tight range since the breakdown at 10:00 AM.
11:09 Flattening on accumulators could potentially give a great entry, but at the same time, there is risk of a sudden breakdown, typically caused by the program activity. However, we are consolidating after a partial fader of a huge gap with SW +1825 and Change +109...did I say "risk"?
11:11 A rather noticeable squeeze right now, I think this is it.
11:18 Yep, testing previous high.
11:24 A breakout above the previous high. Let's see 196.02. SW +1885, Change +112.
11:30 Algos/SPY MP flat for the past hour. SW higher at +1914, Change +97. NEW UP CYCLE CONFIRMED, and it's very strong at its origination.
11:39 Spike down on the VXX MP, as price continues to trade below the previous high. SW +1910, Change +97.
11:43 VXX MP lower, SPY MP flat, Algos continue selling.
11:45 30-minute chart of SPY is a thing of beauty - open/close levels have been in a 10 cents range for the past 1.5 hours! Can't stay like that for the rest of the day.
11:48 16-point range on /ES. Volatility is contracting, I guess.
11:50 /ES is squeezed. Looks as it is going to test downside.
11:53 Previous 30-minute bar on SPY has made a higher low, but not a higher high. SPY test 60-minute range, which is 13 cents away from the possible breakdown level.
11:56 Price tests the breakdown level of previous bar's low, 195.3. Algos continue selling, and it's all that matters at the moment. Maybe a reversal at 12:00-12:15?
11:58 Another leg down on Algos, looks like a small program has been run.
UPDATE 12:00 SW +1889, Change +81. Algos remain sellers, VXX MP flattening after the leg down at 11:39. Price has tested support and consolidates in the zone. A higher high is the key in this scenario - if we get another lower high, that could put upside potential at risk. And right now we are consolidating near the lows with lower highs - not a very strong pattern.
12:04 One point of concern - mixed signals and divergences. We've got the Secondary, with its very positive divergence on Change and a potential identification of a new up cycle today, yet the Liquidity, dominated by Algos, is going down the drain. With this divergence, however, there is also a considerable extension down right now. So again, we've got multiple mixed signals even just from one tool...seems like uncertainty is dominating recent trading...
12:09 Seeing some burst to the upside expressed by consecutive up candles on 1-min, as everything flattens. In picking reversals to the upside this is exactly what I love to see - a sequence of consecutive up candles from the lows, not extended, but consistent and over some period of time - that sets up for a future burst in the form of an extension.
12:12 We've got 6 consecutive green 1-min candles from 12:05 to 12:10. Price has stopped at the high of the previous 30-minute bar - somewhat a decision point. SW+1962, Change +85.
12:14 Talking of the key points for today and mixed signals in the market - notice how SW has reached higher levels, as price moved into the gap?
12:15 CLASSIC REVERSAL STAGED RIGHT AT 12:00! PRICE EXCEEDS 196.02. As I was focusing on other things, I completely missed an uptick in Algo liquidity, which started around 12:08-12:10.
12:18 SW REACHES +2001, CHANGE +87. This was such an easy setup, one only needed to wait for a downside test and a supportive signal from the Algo Liquidity...Today's post is definitely worth of reading - lots of good predictions based on solid analysis.
12:21 That was a very strong pop, and Algos were consistent in buying through the whole move - they are only flattening now, not selling. Price breaks out higher, 196.12.
12:23 The beauty of today's setup is that we are ~0.25% away from the highs of the day, tested downside with the reversal of algo behavior, and we still have +86 on the Change and extremely high SW.
12:26 Price tests the last resistance level before the HOD - 196.2; I see continued buying on Algo into the pop, therefore I assume that we would take out 196.2 and then could see some ranges in that zone underneath the HOD.
12:29 That was fast - 196.29. Algos flat for past 3-5 minutes.
UPDATE 12:30 Price broke out to the upper ranges limited by the HOD/196.02. SW is extremely positive at +1988, Change is strong at +73. I am seeing continued buying on Algo liquidity into the highs.
12:32 Previous 30-minute bar was extended - but then again, look at the range of what we've seen during the 2 hours before. Still, given the burst, I would expect some ranges and slow grinding - a general quality of large gap days.
12:38 Meanwhile, a steady decrease in VXX MP since 11:25 or so, continues. That signal, paired with an uptick in Algo liquidity, indicated a strong setup for buying into the lows today.
12:43 I've been paying some attention to options...here's something:
A sweep for ~100k at 11:40.
Another 85k at 11:00:
12:53 Some selling into the pop from Algos, VXX MP flattening. Consolidation near the open.
12:57 A small breakdown below the open, given the current conditions and 30-minute bar positioning, I would say that it is a good opportunity for fading.
UPDATE 1:00 SW +1825, Change +54. Price has tested the previous bar's mid-point, Algos sold some into the decline, but flattening over the course of the past 10 minutes. VXX MP has flattened and seeing a mild increase. To remain in an uptrend, price needs to rise above the current level of 195.82 - therefore, a good buying opportunity IMO.
1:04 Price slightly lower, seeing an uptick on Algos. I must say that we've retraced more than I would've imagined - 61.8% of the upside move and going lower. The Change is weakening, therefore, I suppose that my expectation of a close above open/below the HOD is still very much in play (unless they shoot some big high quote rate programs after 2:00-2:30).
1:07 Trendline test. Algos aren't buying into the dip so far.
1:35 A decline of rather larger degree than I expected; SW +1729 and Change +40. VXX MP rising slowly, Algos decreasing to flat. 195.5 is now the critical level. Price approaches open level.
1:39 So far we have two higher lows and one lower high. 195.5 defines a breakdown, 196.3 defines an upbreak. With the Change +41 we can still see price higher, Algos and VXX MP are the key components.
1:43 What I've said before is pretty much intact, you are either establishing longs for a 2-3 day swing (which should've happened already), or trading ranges to the upside by buying declines, since these ranges are rather big...while price isn't really trending good enough to simply hold an intra-day long...
1:45 A small uptick in Algos which followed the price higher. At least they are not selling into the rise right now.
1:50 Slow grind higher, VXX MP flattening, Algos flat.
1:51 It took two down bars to partially retrace that big up bar, and now we might get another big one. Given the late afternoon, it is unlikely that this trend would reverse. I would also imagine that EOD re-balancing would be on the buying side.
1:53 Looks like they are about to take out the descending resistance and make a new high. Liquidity is flat to slightly rising = ready to pop.
1:56 A test of previous high. If the test fails, the decline should be a lot less severe than the previous one, since price visited the upside target twice already...But I doubt there would be more than 10-15 cents fade at most.
UPDATE 2:00 Price tests the previous high; SW +1797 and Change +35. VXX MP slow decline, Algos slow rise.
2:01 Breakout. There are 30 cents to HOD. It is possible to pull through IMO, afternoon trends usually last...and the "numbers" are good.
2:03 A BIG UPTICK ON ALGOS LIQUIDITY, TESTING UP.
2:08 The HOD was a result of early program activity, S&P is actually testing the "real" HOD right now.
2:09 Algo spike quickly reversed, yet going higher again. Uncertainty?
2:11 BIG VOLUME SPIKE DOWN ON DARK POOLS.
2:14 VXX MP has slowly reversed and testing up, Algos slightly up.
2:16 A rather fast pullback (20 cents) and SPY at the highs again. BREAKOUT.
2:17 Knowing that after the test of the highs there won't be a serious pullback was quite intelligent.
2:18 SW +1846, Change +38.
2:20 As long as Algos are not consistently down and had some decent buying into the lows, I would pay less attention at this time to Accumulators. SW/Change trumps everything right now, all you really need to do is to define price levels at which buying makes sense from the Risk/Reward standpoint.
2:23 If we get above the HOD, I think there will be an aggressive bid up given the trading session we've had so far. Meanwhile, SPY MP started rising around 1:00 pm and continues to do so...really defined the last up move.
2:26 NEW HIGHS; SPY MP RISING MORE, SW +1864 and Change +39.
2:28 The value of the Primary will be slightly below +2k at the close. If The Secondary identifies a new up cycle, that still leaves us plenty of room for the upside.
2:29 Accelerated buying on ALGOS. SPY tests the highs.
UPDATE 2:31 SW +1849, Change +30. VXX MP had a small spike down during the past 5-8 minutes, SPY MP slowly up, Algos buyers. Any pullback should be very moderate.
2:34 Spike up on DP's. Price is higher in slow trading, very well could be a successful test.
2:36 EXTENSION BAR 15 cents, further buying on Algos.
2:37 PRICE VERTICAL, as I said, A VERY AGGRESSIVE BID.
2:39 SW +1882, Change +32. 225 share buy program, extension bars show that buying dominated during its activity. Liquidity surges due to Algos:
2:42 SPX Daily - a move should be coming this week, unless a fake-out or a further squeeze.
2:43 SPY actually had similar descending resistance, and it got broken during this upside burst.
2:45 Another high, 197.12. A level of 197.2 represents resistance, very close.
2:47 It would be fun to see a burst above the previous highs into the close on heavy program activity. Wouldn't happen, but it seems like we could gap above those highs tomorrow, unless exogenous events.
2:49 DP's buy spike pushes liquidity higher. Price slowly retraces part of the up move.
2:52 Some consolidation on the /ES with a very tight bid, faded only by 2 points. I would still expect higher highs.
2:54 0.5 points to the high, /VX already shows new lows. SPY MP continues rising, Algos showing new set of buying coming in, might be testing up. The way we close today is critical IMO; if they start unloading into this...then I would not be too optimistic about the next three days, and would probably expect a fader into the gap closure of today.
2:57 /ES tops out once again at 1964 and bumps a little bit lower. Algos marked a new high in buying, but quickly reversed and most likely were the reason of the recent selling.
UPDATE 3:00 SW +1819, Change +22. Liquidity all higher, SPY MP higher. The 60-minute high range represents current support level, but I doubt that it will be reached...unless, programs.
3:02 /ES pops after a 3 point retracement. Might be consolidating a bit.
3:05 /ES tests 0.25 points within the high.
3:08 Tick down on liquidity, some obvious profit taking is happening. 3:30 - 3:50 action should be interesting.
3:11 There is a 3-point range on /ES. A break below = at least 2 points down, a break above = ?
3:12 ALGOS SHOWING SELLING INTO THE HIGHS RIGHT NOW
3:13 Noticeable range tightening on SPY. Continued algo selling, VXX MP flat. SPY MP flattening.
3:16 Price is right near the breakdown level, they might just fire a program and be done with it...
3:19 Another test of the support and range compresses even more. I would say that it consolidates nicely, only if I didn't see this:
It didn't break down yet, as I am writing this, but most likely it will in the next 5 minutes.
3:21 BREAKDOWN. SPY MP completely flat. Tests support.
3:23 Liquidity continues down, it will mark the pre-breakout levels if it continues to do so for the next 3-5 minutes.
3:28 BUY SPIKE, price is back in the consolidation range. An uptick on Algos, which pretty much marked their pre-extension levels. Possibly a good sign. VXX MP down.
3:29 BIG BURST of buying, 4 bars in a row so far.
UPDATE 3:31 SW +1835, Change +18. Algo liquidity higher, VXX MP lower, SPY MP slightly higher, flattening. Good conditions.
3:32 Price is at the highs. /ES tested 1964. Looks like they're pushing it higher.
3:33 Consolidation near the top. An uptick in DPs activity, so as Algos.
3:35 Continued strong buying on Algos as price retraces back a bit.
3:36 BREAKOUT. Price tests the last small resistance level before the big chevron down.
3:37 I will close my /ES position from last week, simply because there is still a huge amount of uncertainty right now, expressed in Delineators, Accumulators and other metrics.
3:38 PRICE IS VERTICAL, 50 CENTS BELOW THE END OF THE VOLUME NULL. SW seems to be made out of titanium today, +1871.
3:41 Closed my /ES into an extension, 33.5 points over the weekend.
3:44 Liquidity is rising into the new high, not only due to Algos but also due to large DP's volumes as well; SPY MP up. Price absorbs the last burst, but without any large retracements.
3:46 Now, this looks better. Algos are unchanged during the past 10 minutes, this is all Dark Pools:
Is an EOD spike on liquidity going to happen, as it did during the recent closures, or not? That could put it up on the day...
3:48 /VX didn't make a corresponding lower low on the last S&P high (just a note). VXX MP lower in last 5-7 minutes. Liquidity ALL continues higher, only due to Dark Pools. Price is within 0.5 points of the high, in the very upper zone for the day, even without a decent retracement of the last move up.
3:50 Upside test. Let's see what EOD will present on this very interesting trading day.
3:52 As they are painting the close, I would like to say that this was the strongest day since the panic has started. Why? An afternoon reversal after a gap up, without too much extensions or volatility, followed by 5 consecutive low-volatility 30-minute bar up, which marked a very strong close.
Just price as it is:
3:55 NEW HIGH, SW +1831 and Change +17. Liquidity a whole lot higher, supported by both Dark Pools and Algos, the latter ones had another extension up. I will post the pictures in the closing read.
3:57 Just for reference, right now price is within 50 cents of the previous high. 20 cents to the end of the volume null.
3:58 One thing for certain - they are BUYING the close.
3:59 And we are seeing the regular extensions on liquidity into the close, with one difference - it started rising at noon and fully supported the strong upside move into 4:00 pm.
CLOSING POST 4:00 SW closed at +1775, Change +15. Liquidity (All) and SPY MP supported the reversal and the whole move into the close. I will mark this post with [ID] - Important Day, since it was outstanding in my opinion.
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