Bull Vertical Put 193/194 (30/30) for 0.12
Reason: 1 day to expire, weak new up cycle on the Primary, lots of resistance above and weak extension intra-day.
At origination:
Probability of profit : 68.53%
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.17%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.5%
Percent to the downside: -1.46%
Percent to the upside: +1.1%
Maximum profit: +2.68%
Maximum loss: -5.32%
At origination:
Probability of profit : 68.53%
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.17%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.5%
Percent to the downside: -1.46%
Percent to the upside: +1.1%
Maximum profit: +2.68%
Maximum loss: -5.32%
NOTES:
Negative delta two vertical spreads (full Iron Condor) with some bias to the downside. Bias to the downside is given due to the fact that we might be closing a little bit lower today and the Primary. The break-even points are defined by the recent ranges, and given the recent range-behavior of The Primary and the price, they leave plenty of room for Friday trading.
This ultimately supports the bias that Friday trading will continue to be range-bound.
Current 5-day average daily change sits at 1.46%, and our break-even points allow bigger movement by 3/4.
I will be looking to put a bull put spread on Friday into weakness with a break-even point in the recent support.
Negative delta two vertical spreads (full Iron Condor) with some bias to the downside. Bias to the downside is given due to the fact that we might be closing a little bit lower today and the Primary. The break-even points are defined by the recent ranges, and given the recent range-behavior of The Primary and the price, they leave plenty of room for Friday trading.
This ultimately supports the bias that Friday trading will continue to be range-bound.
Current 5-day average daily change sits at 1.46%, and our break-even points allow bigger movement by 3/4.
I will be looking to put a bull put spread on Friday into weakness with a break-even point in the recent support.
_________________________________________________________________________________
Probability of profit : 67.36%
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.52%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.23%
Percent to the downside: -1.12%
Percent to the upside: +1.44%
Price has moved lower, and given the Primary, upside risk is minimized now, as it is exactly the average 10-day range. Downside risk is modestly higher, than what I would like to see, but given its position at the gap closure, it still remains reasonable.
The bull put spread should have been put later into the fade.
End of the Day update:
Probability of loss to the downside: 19.52%
Probability of loss to the upside: 13.23%
Percent to the downside: -1.12%
Percent to the upside: +1.44%
Price has moved lower, and given the Primary, upside risk is minimized now, as it is exactly the average 10-day range. Downside risk is modestly higher, than what I would like to see, but given its position at the gap closure, it still remains reasonable.
The bull put spread should have been put later into the fade.
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