September 17 - FED DAY

UPDATE 11:00 SPY is squeezed 10 cents below the high. So far, it looks like it will break-out - but I wouldn't trust the move fully given the event and the momentum..

11:07 New highs, as expected.


11:11 Meanwhile, the $SPX is 3 points away from 2000. That's something...


UPDATE 1:10 So far, this steady extension-breakout holds - it's really a continuation of the past 2-day move...50 minutes to go before the announcement. SPX has hit 2000 - if we drop next week the media will be all over the place talking about that resistance.

1:14 I will book a partial loss on my butterfly spread simply because the Risk/Reward is not in my favor with the current price action. While a 0.7% drop (amount that turns it profitable) could occur into the tomorrow close, that would be only based on the hope and not fundamental factors.

1:21 SPY reaches 201.

1:25 The VIX futures curve...almost back to normal...but then there are exogenous events.

1:28 HUGE volume null ahead, looking at past 4.5 months.

1:31 One major outcome of the coming 2:00 pm release - the VIX should move swiftly either one way or another. 


1:34 However, the event could be largely priced in...something to keep in mind.


2:17 No interest rate hike. Wouldn't be surprised to see V1 over spot VIX into the close.


2:18 BOOM

2:19 V1 - Spot spread is around 0.3-0.4 points in spot favor.


2:22 Yeah vol, getting back to normal over there:

2:32 Squeeze is on. I wonder if those who anticipated a rate hike will unload their hedges until they expire worthless? Should create downside pressure on VIX.

2:41 202 on SPY brings 204 as the gap close.


2:48 202.5., price is vertical. 202.92 is the highest high into that gap down.