9:25 Without knowing the SW/change, I would assume that there are good odds for at least a partial fill of this gap. The yesterday's breakout has happened in the last 5-8 minutes, so a fill or even a bounce off support at 194.7 is quite possible.
9:31 SW has opened modestly positive at +952, change at +13.
9:37 Large decline in VXX MP so far. Initiated long into 5-minute range breakout. SW
9:39 Price has filled about half of the opening gap. That might be just enough...if that holds - it's definitely a sign of strength.
9:40 Another breakout at 9:39. Price approaches the top of the volume null. SW +1255, change + 28.
9:43 Price has exceeded the top of the volume null; VXX MP continuously declines. SW +1358, change +33. Stronger.
9:45 SW +1508, change +40. SPY MP up and flattening, VXX MP complete downfall, liquidity and algos are up, DP's sellers. So far everything supports the move up.
9:48 SW +1664, change +48. Sold longs into the highs, as I expect a certain degree of a pull-back. Liquidity/SPY MP flattening.
9:52 SW +1775, change + 54. New highs. SW above +800 would identify a new up cycle on the Secondary, as Steve Hammer has mentioned...lots of potential, dips should be bought.
9:55 SPY MP continues higher, liquidity shows some selling into the highs. VXX MP only started bouncing a couple minutes ago, that's almost a 30-minute decline in its market pressure!
9:58 Partial long into the dip
10:01 Added to full position long
10:06 SPY just barely exceeded 50% retracement on the dip, bounced and VXX MP declines again. The 30-min range is about 11 points on the /ES, which is tiny for the recent environment (yesterday's range - 31 point); so one should expect an expansion...most likely in the upside direction.
10:09 SPY rebounds from the morning reversal, SW +1670 and change +39
10:10 Huge expansion on the "clean" 10:05-10:10 5-minute bar, which almost covered all of the downside range of the previous 3 (15min time-period) bars. Very interesting.
10:12 Accelerated selling on algos, DPs flattening. VXX MP down.
10:14 Range contraction on /ES_F. Expect a move in the next 5-8 minutes, a breakout or test of the downside support.
10:15 Meanwhile SPY makes a nice doji with long bottom tail on 5 minute, an opposite of the 9:50-9:55 reversal bar. Uptick in liquidity due to algos. SW +1747, change +43
10:16 Upside test, new high with a fader. MP and liquidity continues up.
10:18 A confirmed breakout, just 4 minutes after my post. SW even stronger at +1814, change +47. An uptick on all accumulators leaded by algo only.
10:21 We are going very strong into 10:30, and this might last longer than one expects.
10:23 SW even stronger at +1894, change +51. VXX MP another extension down, SPY liquidity/algos/MP all UP.
10;25 Meanwhile, intra-day high of SPY is just 0.16 cents away from the gap close. Steve has set gap fill at 197.44 - that's the high today...so according to him - it's filled I guess..?
10:27 New highs, SW +1938 and change +53. 10 cents withing the gap close. Look at the VXX MP...
10:28 Gap closed, SW +1965 and change +54. Wow.
10:30 SPY is 10 cents withing the gap close/high as of the first hour of trading. This is how the hourly bar looks like:
10:31 SPY MP seems to fade into the highs, VXX MP still down! DPs sellers, algos choppy but higher. Here's the VXX MP right now:
10:35 A nice continuous 8 minute decline that I wouldn't expect to break the S1 line (the high of the first 30-minute bar) and certainly not the S2 line (the opening of the second 30-minute bar)
10:38 The 60-minute high was formed just 3 minutes before the 10:30...I assume that the range would still get broken (18 points on /ES_F) and we would exceed the gap closure/high...although it should take some consolidation.
10:40 VXX MP and SPY MP flattening, DPs sellers, Algos buyers. SW +1942, change +43
10:42 I don't want to make early statements, but the probability of the new up cycle on Secondary is really high at the moment. However, with the current slope and change, the Primary would be somewhat extended at the close (certainly above 5k-6k), which somewhat limits the potential and puts the current up cycle in the terminating phase.
A very positive scenario would be a close above the current highs(gap closure) and limited downside movement (range-bound) in between the resistance of 8/27-8/28 (199.46) and volume null (196.8) during the next downside cycle, so that the Secondary doesn't flip back - while the Primary absorbs the downside energy and moves closer to 0. With the current volatility, however, I don't know if range-bound of this size is possible. But what if vol fades?
Another scenario would be a flip of the Secondary and breakout above the 200, while the Primary gets really overextended up (just as it was overextended down during the crash). But that would imply a strong close today at least...tomorrow is Friday, so with the current slope and change, it would certainly be in the 8k-9k area at the week's close...
10:50 Consolidation in ranges, SPY MP up, LIQUIDITY ALL flat, ALGOS up, VXX MP flat, DPs sellers. SW consistent at +1930, change +42.
10:51 I was about to write about a coming squeeze, similar to that at 10:15-10:20 (visible on the 1st above chart) that could drive us to new highs...but a 4-minute burst and SPY is already 20 cents above the gap closure; new highs. SW +1988, change +45. SW is the strongest for the day right now.
10:54 Closed longs into the extension with an intention of buying a fade...which might not come with the current upside force. SPY everything is up, VXX MP another extension down.
10:58 SPY hourly chart, next resistance level is almost a buck away from the current levels. You never know that the trend will last all day until the close. SW +1994, Change +46
11:01 We have lower high...but the VIX is lower too, new low since the panic. That could be something.
11:05 VXX MP right now
11:09 Steve Hammer correctly noted that the first resistance level is actually at 198.33, and apparently, there is a large volume block just below that level, and just above the current price. Therefore, we are pretty much squeezed by that downside pressure from the top defined by this large volume zone and the price resistance, and from the bottom defined by the very large SW and moderately large change. The question is - where do we go from now?
11:13 SPY price flattens, so as VXX MP. SW +1980, change +36
11:15 Partial long into the dip. Price is below the 60 minute level.
11;18 Price has approached the open of the previous 30-minute bar, added to a full long position. I assume that even if we don't see new highs, the 60-minute level would get exceeded at least once again.
11:27 Liquidity (all) higher into the fade, SPY MP flat, VXX MP flattening, Price is in ranges. SW
11:34 Apparently, my long discourse at 10:42 had correct concepts - as Steve points out, there is a big divergence on the Secondary right now, which could come to play if we get an up cycle originated. The target would be 211 on SPY, which is huge.
11:36 SW +1789, Change +20. SPY MP lower, algos declining, liquidity rising, DPs rising, VXX MP steady rising. Price retraced almost 50% to a first 30-minute bar high.
11:41 A very steady decline took place, looks like someone was selling and others were accumulating.
11:43 Given the lower change, I would assume the Primary would finish in 4000's range. Not necessarily overextended.
11:45 SPY MP is somewhat extended down at the moment. Price bounced a bit.
11:50 SW and change unchanged, more noticeable decline/rise in SPY MP/VXX MP.
11:59 Price bounces off the volume null, SPY MP is really extended down...not even an uptick. SW +1688, change +14.
12:05 VXX MP still rising steadily, the opposite of a strong decrease in SPY MP. Unless this changes, the bounces will get faded. #ranges
12:08 SPY MP starts to flatten, maybe the behavior of price will change soon.
12:11 SPY MP continues to flatten, slight decrease in the VXX MP
12:15 Continued flattening of SPY MP and decrease in the VXX MP. SPY bounces of the previous low. SW
And if we take this week alone, most of the volume appears to be in the 194's area. Therefore, provides a sustainable support.
I was totally wrong on a quick rebound from the dip...the environment is more volatile than that - we can't get steady grinding days during this time, as we used to.
2:10 SW +698, Change -42. How quickly we can forget one scenario for the future weeks and focus on the other one? Today it was a question of 2 hours or so. Price made a new low, as algos are in free-fall, while MP is testing down.
Price fills the volume null and this is certainly good. As I said before, if we would trade ranges during the next down cycle on the Primary with modestly negative SW, that could raise the potential for the next up cycle - and build a very strong and sustainable support in the 192-196 area.
2:14 I was totally wrong on the sentiment today. The ranges should have been traded, especially the break of the opening level. That was a great set-up. There were also nice spikes on the WVF beyond 2nd SD on its LRC...one 10-point swing and five 5-point swings...that's 35 combined...what else one needs?
2:17 I'd say bottom.
2:32 A serious down-tick on the VXX MP and an up-tick on every SPY accumulator, paired with SW +1157 and weakly negative change of -18; price reaches above the open. I was wrong previously about my favorite setup - this is truly it...a decline into a strong support level with very positive SW...all you need to wait is for accumulators to confirm...the bounce is inevitable.
I would say that any decline with positive SW into a support, and some consolidation is an excellent setup.
2:46 Price tests previous resistance at 196.5; SW +1355 and Change -8.
2:54 SPY MP on the rise, Liquidity flattening with Algos selling into the bounce; VXX MP flat with a rising bias. SW +1208, Change -15.
3:02 Price bounces off the open as it failed to exceed 196.5; SW +1206 and Change consistent at -15. SPY MP lower, Liquidity all slightly rising and Algos flat to declining; VXX MP flat. There is a trend-line from the gap down on Tuesday that has held so far (purple).
3:06 Liquidity across all accumulators is slightly rising, VXX MP declining. SPY MP declining as well. It is very possible that 196.5 wouldn't get broken today, just ranges in between the LOD and itself.
3:08 Another leg down by a small program - price trades near the first 30-minute bar low, ranges start to compress. I would pay less attention to the VXX MP today (which continues to decline), since it has fallen dramatically and pretty much failed to respond to today's major swing down. What matters is that Algos has tested up and declining, so as the SPY MP. SW +953 and Change -28.
THE BIG QUESTION: Will SW hold +800 at the close so that the Secondary flips up or not?
3:12 The trend-line from Tuesday lows is tested once again after the sell program spike. Noticeable uptick in SPY MP, Algos flattening. SW back to
3:17 SW vs Change and MP vs Algos. Algos are testing down once again. SW unchanged, Slope -17.
3:19 The heaviest volume in the SPY appears to be right near the price, while there is a light-volume area above up to 197. A decision point? MP rising and ready test up, Algos continue testing down.
3:24 Bollinger Bands are at their 3rd tightest range of the day:
3:25 A failed breakout and further contraction, now testing down-side. Things might get uglier.
3:26 While SPY MP exceeded previous top, Algos exceeded their previous bottom. The latter pushed price below that Tuesday trend-line, which now tests yesterday's close. SW +869 and Change -32.
3:28 Now things don't look as pretty, but since there is only half-hour left, it might not matter. I only care about the closing SW and whether or not we break the last low.
I don't want to look over-confident, but to me this just looks as a "digesting" phase after the previous consolidation in the range of 197-199 and an abrupt gap down, especially given the fact that tomorrow is the last trading day of the week. But here's the volume profile for the last 10 days:
This zone (194.76 - 197.17) has partially or fully captured four, rather large gaps, during the period of 10 days:
Gap (down) #1 (purple) - got filled on the 8/27 dip after a gap-up.
Gap (up) #2 (yellow) - got filled on the 9/2 fully.
Gap (down) #3 (green) - got filled on the 9/3.
Gap (up) #4 (not presented) - got filled on the 9/3 (today's gap).
As the result, there is a volume null of a decent size in between areas of large volume consolidation - 192-194 on the downside (support) and 197-199 on the upside (resistance).
I assume, that in the coming days this volume null would get filled and with larger volume in the levels of 192-194 the 200's would get taken out.
UPDATE: 3:43 As I was writing a big piece of analysis, I completely missed on some intra-day action. The lows got taken out and all liquidity accumulators have shown buying into decline (which is a very strong sign). As one can see, that squeeze on the BB's could have gone both ways - but the failed breakout to the upside and a down test have done what they should have done.
Or maybe this is just a coincidence, as it appears there were multiple sell spikes with huge quote rates. Anyways, SW is +814 and Change at -32; price tests previous low (yesterday's close).
3;48 A rather bullish flag near the resistance, accumulators are supportive, squeeze the close?
3:49 Oh my... news algos have read the previous post?
3:51 SW +981, Change -24. 9 more minutes to go.
3:54 Algos are buying the close. Continuous rise on the accumulator.
3:56 Pretty slow action going into the last ten minutes - looks like the imbalance in between buyers and seller is not that big today.
3:57 Price has been squeezed in the tight range for the last 10 minutes, but it probably doesn't matter.
3:58 A break above the opening low. SPY MP, Liquidity and Algos are parabolic.
4:00 And a 2-minute decline into the close, which pretty much covered the prior 3:49 extension. It looks like SW has barely closed above +800, but I would wait for Steve Hammer to confirm.
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